⚽ April 11th, 2025 Match predictions

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Burnley's impressive 55% home win rate combined with Norwich City's dismal 20% away win record creates a significant advantage for the Clarets at Turf Moor. The hosts' strong defensive record (conceding just 0.91 xG at home) against Norwich's struggling away form (50% loss rate on their travels) strongly suggests the match will end with the home team victorious.

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The previous encounter between these teams ended in a goalless draw (0-0), establishing a precedent for low-scoring affairs. Additionally, their historical matchup data shows an average of 0 goals per game with no instances of both teams scoring, strongly suggesting this upcoming Copa Sudamericana match will likely remain under 2.5 goals.

League Form: LWWLW-LLDWL

Lens are poised for victory at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis due to their superior home xG of 1.73 (compared to Reims' away xG against of 1.72), coupled with Reims' poor away form of just 23% wins and 46% losses on the road. The bookmakers' confidence is reflected in Lens' favorable 1.62 odds for the win versus Reims' long 5.80 odds, making a home victory the most probable outcome in this Ligue 1 clash.

League Form: WWLLD-LDWLW

Troyes is likely to secure a home win due to their superior xG average of 1.66 at home and 36% win rate, contrasted with Ajaccio's poor away form (64% loss rate) and weaker defensive record (xG against of 1.81). The betting odds strongly favor Troyes at 1.77 compared to Ajaccio's 4.90, reflecting the statistical advantage the home team holds in this matchup.

League Form: LWDWDW-WLLLD

Given both teams' offensive capabilities—Rodez scoring well at home (1.79 xG) and Caen showing decent away attacking numbers (1.37 xG)—combined with the high total match xG of 3.16 and Caen's defensive struggles on the road (79% loss rate), both teams finding the net seems highly probable. The betting odds reflect this attacking dynamic, with Rodez's clean sheet odds at 1.39 and the statistical certainty (100%) of at least one goal being scored in matches between these teams further supporting a both-teams-to-score outcome.

League Form: WLDWL-WWWWD

The match is likely to end with over 2.5 goals because Metz brings a strong attacking threat on the road with an xG of 1.39, while Martigues' defensive vulnerability (67% home loss rate) creates favorable conditions for a high-scoring affair. Despite the historical average of 2.28 goals between these teams, the current offensive capabilities of Metz combined with Martigues' defensive weaknesses suggest this particular matchup will break the trend and exceed the 2.5 goal threshold.

League Form: WLDWL-LLDDL

The match between Pau and Clermont appears destined for under 2.5 goals due to both teams' defensive tendencies, with Pau allowing just 1.34 xG at home and the pre-match total goals expectation sitting at a modest 2.15. Additionally, the odds structure (including 2.00 for both teams not scoring) and Pau's potential for a clean sheet (2.60 odds) strongly suggest a low-scoring tactical affair rather than an open, goal-filled contest.

League Form: LLWDL-WLLLW

Both teams to score (BTTS) is likely in this match because Amiens SC boasts a strong offensive xG of 1.6 at home while Dunkerque concedes 1.15 xG per away game, creating favorable conditions for the hosts to find the net. Simultaneously, Dunkerque's attacking xG of 1.35 on the road poses a significant threat against Amiens' defensive vulnerabilities, with the total expected xG of 2.95 further suggesting both teams have good opportunities to score.

League Form: WWLDD-LLDLD

Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities (with identical BTTS No odds at 1.83), and though the match may start cautiously (28% first-half BTTS), the second half BTTS probability spikes to 49%, suggesting goals from both sides as the game intensifies and tactics adjust.

League Form: WDLLL-LDWLW

Both teams average nearly 3 goals per match in their previous encounters (2.97), supported by strong Over 2.5 Goals odds of 1.61 and a high 61% Both Teams To Score rate in their head-to-head history. Leipzig's defensive vulnerabilities on the road (1.71 xG against) paired with Wolfsburg's superior home attacking threat (1.50 xG) creates the perfect conditions for multiple goals as these evenly matched sides look to outscore each other rather than settle for a draw.